The drivers and consequences of school absences
This fellowship will focus on two key research questions: i) What are the key variables that predict the degree of school absence (and persistent absence)? ii) What is the causal effect of school absence on educational outcomes? The fellowship will draw on the Understanding Society: Linked Education Administrative Datasets to answer these two questions.
Absence has increased significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic-related school closures and resultant loss of face-to-face teaching. The return to face-to-face teaching did not mean return of all pupils to the classroom. Over 28% of primary pupils and 40% of secondary pupils who qualified for free school meals (FSM) were persistently absent during the 2021/22 autumn term (ONS, 2022). In January 2023 the Education Committee launched an inquiry into persistent absence with a focus on disadvantaged pupils. Being able to identify which factors are most likely to correlate with the level of absence, and whether a pupil is likely to be persistently absent, will allow schools to identify groups most at risk and put in place preventative measures/interventions. Similarly, having this information may allow policymakers and schools to better design (tailored interventions) to improve absence.
Understanding the causal nature and the magnitude of the consequences of this absence is also important. There is a well-documented correlation between students’ absences and educational outcomes which is intuitive to assume is causal, however it may not be as time-varying, student-level shocks, such as ill health or family problems can confound existing estimates by affecting students’ attendance and their academic performance.
