Authors
Summary
Fertility projections are vital to anticipate demand for maternity and childcare services, among other uses. Models typically use aggregate population-level data alone, ignoring the richness of individual-level data. We hence develop a Bayesian parity-specific projection model combining such data sources. We apply our method to England and Wales, using individual-level data from Understanding Society. Fitting generalised additive models gives smooth projections across age, cohort, and time since last birth. We also incorporate prior beliefs about the relative importance of the data sources. Our approach generates plausible forecasts by individual-level variables including educational qualification, despite their absence in the population-level data.
Volume and page numbers
Volume: 73 , p.275 -297
Subjects
Notes
© The Royal Statistical Society 2023.
Open Access
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