Income, Welfare, Housing and the Transition to Higher Order Births in the UK

Presenter: Ann Berrington, University of Southampton

The UK shows relatively high levels of progression to higher order birth compared to the rest of Europe. It is often assumed that the means-tested benefits system, including family allowances and subsidised housing, has an indirect pronatalist effect for low-income families, but robust empirical evidence is lacking. We use household panel data from a large, nationally representative study to examine the relationship between household income, receipt of welfare benefits, housing, and the probability of experiencing a second, third or fourth birth. Predictors of second birth were somewhat different to third and fourth births and were dominated by demographic factors including age and partnership status, as well as economic activity status. We interpret this in terms of the strong ‘two child norm’ in the UK. Associations with income varied by parity and women’s age. High levels of child tax credit receipt were associated with an increased risk of third birth. Social housing showed a strong, positive association with third and fourth birth. Whilst demographic factors – particularly women’s age – remain the strongest predictor of parity progression for all parity transitions, we provide new evidence to suggest that welfare receipt and housing circumstances contribute to explaining social polarisation in family size in the UK. Our findings also have significant policy relevance in view of ongoing changes to the UK welfare system that will influence both means tested family allowances and provision of social housing.